Assessing changes in physics students' preparedness: Mathematics and physics prior knowledge of German first-semester students in 2013 and 2023

Insufficient prior knowledge in mathematics and physics is seen as a key factor for high attrition rates in physics degree programs. To investigate trends in students’ academic preparedness, this study examines how the mathematics and physics prior knowledge of first-year physics students in Germany has changed between 2013 and 2023. Using data from standardized diagnostic tests administered at multiple universities in both cohorts, we compared performance across cohorts and institutions. Results indicate small but meaningful increases in average performance from 2013 to 2023: mathematics knowledge improved slightly (Cohen’s 𝑑=0.1⁢0), and physics knowledge even more (Cohen’s 𝑑=0.2⁢1). Despite this improvement, students’ average performance remains only modest—67% correct in mathematics and only 38% correct in physics. Moreover, our findings indicate a growing heterogeneity in students’ preparation: while mathematics and physics performance improved at some universities, mathematics performance declined at others. Overall, the results underscore the importance of continued monitoring of incoming students’ prior knowledge and support the use of diagnostic tools to inform targeted instructional strategies transition to university-level physics.