Make your choice - students' early abilities to compare probabilities of events in an urn-context

As data analysis and probability gained interest in primary education, the need for a thorough knowledge base on students’ early capabilities increased. Children in grade 4 already master basic concepts of probability and distinguish different degrees thereof. However, the abilities of students in the domain of probabilistic reasoning are affected by misconceptions as research could show. Especially, problems of representativeness, availability, and problems with the adjustment of probabilities of events are identified. Our research addressed whether students of grades 4 and 6 were able to compare probabilities of events. In an urn context, children were asked to solve problems and compare events in respect to their probability. We found problems resulting from misconceptions. However, students also used facilitating features of tasks like sure-to-win draws. The results rest on standardized interviews.